The Broncos have already played seven games this season, but watching Bo Nix week after week still makes me feel like I’m trying to understand an encoded ransom note. It’s a roller coaster ride of competent and poor football, and every time I think I have the rookie figured out, a new performance alters my evaluation.
Here’s what I do know. Denver is 4-3 after a 33-10 thumping of the Saints on Thursday night and is firmly entrenched in the AFC wild card race. Nix is averaging 178 yards per game with eight total touchdowns (five passing/three rushing) and five interceptions. He’s completed just over 61% of his throws with a passer rating of 74.4 and a QBR of 50.2 (all three below league average).
Nix also has 255 yards on the ground at 5.4 yards per rush and is coming off a 10-carry performance in New Orleans where he ran for a season-high 75 yards.
It’s been a mixed bag, to say the least. At 24 years old, Nix was widely projected as one of the more pro-ready prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft. In his final year of college, Nix set the NCAA record by completing 77.4% of his passes, and his accuracy was enough in the eyes of scouts to offset his average arm strength. Has that proven to be worth it? So far, not exactly.
Nix has made throws like this:
(Credit: @Broncos on Twitter)
While also missing easy ones like this:
(Credit: @austingayle_ on Twitter)
To his credit, Nix is succeeding in the quick game, hitting 70.6% of his 68 passes under 2.5 seconds. However, most of them are at or near the line of scrimmage, leading to a rate of just 4.9 yards per attempt on those fast throws. In total, Nix’s 5.6 yards per attempt is the third-worst in the league among qualified passers, as well as far below the standard of a franchise quarterback.
The No. 12 overall pick has struggled to push the ball down the field. Against the Saints, Nix was just 2-for-8 on passes beyond 10 yards, lowering his season average to a poor 41.7% completion percentage from that distance.
Nix’s anticipation on throws is definitely one of his strong points, and as he learns the offense more, his ability to read the defense faster and predict where his receivers will be is likely to improve. While Nix is prone to making some poor decisions, I believe that a lot of his issues, particularly regarding his accuracy, come from his base.
The rookie is pretty good at scrambling and escaping defenders, and he definitely has the capability to throw on the run. However, on passes from within the pocket, Nix somtimes looks jittery and often does not step into his throws. Rewatch the previous clip; you’ll notice Nix run up in the pocket before doing a weird leaning throw that doesn’t enable him to put enough torque behind the ball. Instead of using his legs to generate force, the throw is almost entirely raw arm strength, leading to a ball that lands in no man’s land.
This seems to be the issue with many of his longer throws. On short passes, Nix can fire a ball into a tight window without much effort, pushing the football forward with nothing more than shoulder rotation and a flick of the wrist. But when he looks downfield, he frequently doesn’t have the proper footwork to get the ball to its target at an accurate location or distance.
(Credit: @MileHighReport on Twitter)
This is a touchdown if Nix hits the receiver in stride. Instead, Josh Reynolds has to slow down and make a leaping catch between three defenders. Several people blamed a lack of arm strength for this, but it’s actually another issue of Nix not using his lower body in his deep throws.
Nix’s feet are literally off the ground and his body is parallel to his target. He throws this pass from his own 31-yard line, and through pure arm strength, it lands at the opposing 13-yard line for a 56-air-yard pass. This trick play was designed so that Nix would have blockers in front of him and room to step into a throw, and instead, he runs up and chucks the ball as far as he can with no platform to aid him.
Watching Bo Nix perplexes me. I didn’t expect him to be an NFL starting quarterback when he was at Oregon and certainly not a first-round pick, but seven games into his pro career, I can’t help but wonder if there is something that can be unlocked with proper coaching and form work. A November stretch against the Ravens, Chiefs, Falcons and Raiders could crush Denver’s playoff hopes, so if the Broncos want to finish as a top seven team in the AFC, fixing Nix’s footwork should be the top priority.
I think there's something there.
Bo Nix has some of the best pocket presence in the NFL, boasting a sack rate of just 3.86 despite holding the ball forever (fifth longest average time to throw in the NFL according to NGS). Considering that avoiding sacks is the most important skill an NFL QB can have, to have such fully developed pocket presence as a rookie is an extraordinarily good sign, and indicates to me that (if he can get his arm issues sorted) he may have the most potential of all the 2024 rookies.
However, his arm is a big negative right now, perhaps for the reasons you mentioned. If he can't get that fixed up, he will never be anything at the NFL level, but if he can, we may be looking at the next elite talent in this game. Based on pocket presence alone, I am extremely excited about Bo Nix, and if he can get his arm to be good (it doesn't have to be great, just good) then he will be a top ten QB in this league. However, if he can't, then like I said, he will be nothing, because while he does have the most important skill (which is, without debate, pocket presence) there does need to be some arm talent involved, and he doesn't have any yet.
We've seen Patrick Mahomes ride elite pocket presence and great but not elite arm talent to be the best QB in the league for years. Am I saying Bo Nix will be the next Mahomes? Of course not, but I am saying that he does have the elite pocket presence down already, which is an extremely good sign going forward.
Good analysis.